Since its debut in April 2000, the Pocket PC (formerly Palm-size PC, formerly Windows CE) handheld platform has experienced exceptional growth, passing the 1-million-units-sold marker in approximately 10 months. While PDAs using the Palm OS (such as handhelds from Palm, Handspring, and Sony) still hold the majority of the market, Microsoft and its partners have made huge inroads in a short period of time. Can the Pocket PC continue to gain market share, and even surpass Palm PDAs as the de facto standard?

The marketing strategy behind the Palm and Handspring family of PDAs is to promote the devices as replacements for traditional paper organizers -- while the devices can do considerably more, the main pitch is to join the electronic revolution and can your Franklin Planner.

Keeping your appointments and contacts on a Palm device does have advantages, both in ease of use (audible alarms, one-step entry of recurring meetings, synchronization with PC data) and productivity. But these are duties that can be easily performed using traditional means. Although newer models sport color displays (and higher price tags), your basic Palm or Handspring PDA usually offers a monochrome display, 16MHz or 20MHz processor, and 8MB of memory and costs $149 to $199.

The Pocket PC, on the other hand, takes the "toy computer" concept quite a bit further, resembling a scaled-down (and keyboardless) laptop in both power and functionality -- hence Microsoft's marketing slogan, "Getting organized is only the beginning."

A standard Pocket PC includes an active-matrix color display, 133MHz to 206MHz processor, and 32MB of memory; granted, it'll run you $499 or more, but as with computers in general, you tend to get what you pay for. There are also more budget-minded choices out there, such as Hewlett-Packard's Jornada 525 ($359 with a 256-color display) and Compaq's iPaq H3150 ($299 with a grayscale display), both of which sport 16MB of memory.

To me, a basic misconception of the Pocket PC/Palm debate is the idea that these devices are directly comparable or even go after the same market segment. The Palm is a PDA that also functions as a rudimentary computer, while the Pocket PC is a computer that also doubles as a PDA. Both fill very real market needs, but when a company forgets its roots -- such as with Palm's and Handspring's $450 color models -- it typically has serious trouble competing in the other's backyard.

Its Windows underpinnings make the Pocket PC platform a very familiar one to most desktop users, and can lower acclimation time significantly; the Palm OS does offer Office-compatible programs such as DataViz Documents to Go, but even its staunchest supporters wouldn't confuse a Palm device with a full-fledged computer. The Palm does hold advantages in having a smaller OS footprint, longer battery life, and excellent (though initially difficult) Graffiti printing-recognition system.

The above points mean the Pocket PC format will certainly not be for everyone. Those seeking a basic, low-cost electronic organizer, along with a few extra computing features, will still flock to Palm-based devices. After all, paying for more functionality than you actually need is never a good business call.

But buyers who have greater requirements will undoubtedly be swayed by the Pocket PC's combination of shirt-pocket size, expansion options, and powerful hardware and software features. I feel the Pocket PC design is where the ultraportable PC market is headed in the years to come -- more toward a notebook alternative than a glorified electronic organizer.

No One Ever Got Fired for Buying Microsoft

Some key considerations are where corporate buyers are headed, and what sort of market presence and vendor support each platform has. Large vendors like HP and Compaq have immense influence with enterprise markets, and it's consequently no surprise that iPaq and Jornada are the sales leaders in the Pocket PC sector. If industry reports can be trusted, the Pocket PC platform has been making great strides with corporate America, while Palm OS devices have proven more of an "everyman's PDA," finding their sales strength -- or, recently, backlogged inventories -- in consumer retail channels.

The development for Palm and Pocket PC platforms is also quite different, especially for corporate software developers. The Pocket PC runs a scaled-down version of Windows, including basic APIs. This creates a development atmosphere of working on a mini-PC, rather than something with an entirely different set of rules. Microsoft has also provided and actively promoted a robust developer toolkit. While Palm still claims the lead in sheer number of third-party developers, the thrust of future business software development seems to be pointing at Microsoft.

It might, anyway, if not for one of the most visible obstacles to Pocket PC ownership -- Microsoft itself. The level of distrust the company has engendered lately borders on paranoia, and it doesn't help that most Pocket PC news doesn't revolve around hardware or software improvements, but in ways Microsoft plans to use Pocket PC to enhance its revenues (a very familiar story).

I keep reading how the Pocket PC will be integral to the success of Microsoft's .Net strategy, but one of my greatest fears about buying a Pocket PC is that Microsoft will flog me with online services that I don't want or need. I also shudder at the prospect of adding a new CompactFlash card or Microdrive and having an upcoming version of Windows CE sound a Win XP-style Product Activation alarm.

Even with the threat of Microsoft the Unfriendly Giant, I still feel the most compelling reason for the future success of Pocket PC is that at its base, it's a fully functional personal computer running an operating system and applications similar to desktop standards. There are certainly tradeoffs in moving to the Pocket PC's size, but not in basic functionality or purpose. If you want to use familiar Microsoft Office applications, listen to an MP3 song, play a video game (where the Palm isn't even in the same ballpark), or even watch a video clip, these are all well supported.

Add a detachable, fold-out keyboard, and a few travelers may even decide to leave their laptops at work. The tantalizing prospect of carrying a fully equipped PC in your jacket pocket should cut potential travel theft to a minimum (try walking through a banana-republic airport carting a notebook!), as well as getting rid of the usual "laptop shoulder ache" when you finally reach your hotel room. After all, if you just need to take notes, work on a few Word and Excel files, and play MP3s on the flight, do you really need to carry a full-sized notebook?

The transformation of the Pocket PC into a viable platform may represent the true future of portable computing. If so, I'll happily go along for the ride. Once wireless access really takes off, I may even take some of my coworkers up on a bet and work out of the coffee shop. Now that's a future we can all embrace!

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